I want to make a preliminary note on this post. I totally understand that there are some people who cannot self-quarantine. There are people who have not been given the option of working remotely. There are people who have to make a living, and they have to go to work. This article isn’t geared toward you. I would still recommend that you go nowhere besides work and home until this blows over, but I do understand that some people need to physically go to work.
This article is geared toward people who can stay home and self-quarantine and choose not to because “this isn’t any worse than the flu.”
Why has our family chosen to quarantine even if we’re healthy?
I’m blogging about our self-quarantine, so here’s yesterday’s self-quarantine article.
Besides putting out that article, I read an amazing article by Jason Warner yesterday! You can find the original here. The premise of the article is this. Find the number of cases in your area now.
1.) As of yesterday, we had 4 people in our area that tested positive for Covid-19.
2.) Now we’re seeing two different groups. One group is telling us that there are 10 times MORE infections than we know about. Another group is saying 50x more infections than are really out there.
For the sake of argument, let’s use the 10x more. So 4 confirmed cases x 10. That gives us 40
3.) Every 3 days the number of infections will double. So if we take our number (40) and multiply it by 2 ten times. So we have 40x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2. This equals 40,960. This is how many people in our area are going to have it in 30 days.
4.) Now take that number and multiply it by .15 (because 15% of the people who get the virus will need to be hospitalized). 40,960 x .15 = 6144. This is how many people in my area will need to be hospitalized.
5.) How many hospital beds does your area have? Our area has 1400 hospital beds. This doesn’t mean ICU beds, this is ALL hospital beds. Many of those beds are already used for other things. Now compare that 1400 hospital beds with the 6144 people who will need hospital beds.
6.) Let’s talk even more about the fact that there are MANY fewer ICU beds and even fewer ventilators!
That makes sense as to what we are doing to keep our family safe BUT. . .
In reality, the reason we are quarantining is to keep OTHER people safe.
Really? How is our family staying home keeping other people safe? The Washington Post has an amazing article with several video explanations as to the effects of quarantining cities, 75% of the population don’t go out, and one where 88% of people don’t go out. The results are staggering!!
If we could get 75-88% of people to shelter in place, this virus would be over so much more quickly! We would expose so many fewer people, and we wouldn’t need to worry about how many hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators that we have access to.
What I want you to see is that staying in can save your neighbor across the street. It can save the person across town with whom you could come in contact before you show symptoms. Going out and acting like this is no different than the flu can have devastating effects on the populace. It’s not loving your neighbor.
What About You?
What articles have you read which would be helpful for the rest of the community? Please share them with us in the comments so that we can all be better prepared.
Together lets Love, Learn, Practice, and Overcome!
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