PREP STRATEGY 101

Written by Nick Card

Have you ever watched an alarming news clip and thought I am definitely not ready for that situation?  Thanks to COVID-19, probably most of us have found weaknesses in our prep strategy.  When COVID-19 first hit the U.S. many of us were thinking:

• What is COVID-19?
• How deadly is it?
• Is it safe to go get groceries?
• What happens if we run out of toilet paper, soap, or even food?
• Would someone attack me to take my toilet paper?

Emergency prep can seem scary or even impossible.  It is easy to come up with crazy “what if” scenarios and watching the news, our everyday worries, and even our hopes and dreams can add to it.  However, if our prep strategy prioritizes and plans for a wide range of emergencies then we will gain peace of mind, even in years like 2020 and 2021.

What do I mean by “prioritize and plan our emergency prepping”?  Well, we’ll start by looking at a wide range of emergencies – from more common to less common.  Then we will make some decisions about where to spend our time and money.

We all tend to come up short on time and money.  If we focus on the most likely emergencies first, then we can make the best use of those resources.  After we prepare for the most likely emergencies, we then can focus on those that are devastating, but less likely, yet still important.  Finally, we can put our plan into action and see how to prepare for several emergencies at a time.   If we follow these steps, we can be confident in our plan and we will have peace of mind because we know what to do.

PREP STRATEGY STEP #1: HOW LIKELY IS A GIVEN EMERGENCY?

To make the best use of our resources, we want to prepare for the most likely emergencies first.

When making your prep strategy, there are three main factors to consider when prioritizing emergencies.

1. Some emergencies are more common than others.
   • Example: house fire vs nuclear bomb
2. Some emergencies occur more often based on where we live.
   • Example: hurricane in Florida vs winter storm in Colorado
3. Some emergencies occur more often based on our behaviors.
   • Example: car accident for a delivery driver vs a serious burn for chef

Some emergencies are more common than others.

Some emergencies are just more common than others.  Let’s use the example above of a house fire versus a nuclear bomb going off.  If we start building a bomb shelter and buy radiation detectors, but we neglect buying or maintaining our home’s smoke detectors and fire extinguishers, we may find ourselves regretting that.

Further, our car breaking down is more likely than our house catching on fire.  Many (but not all) people are fortunate enough go their entire lives without having their house catch on fire.  Few of us can say the same for our cars breaking down on the side of the road.

We can start by brainstorming as many different emergencies as come to mind.  If we skip this step then we may be less confident in our plan (because it is less thorough) and instead of peace of mind, it brings us more worry.  More worry means more stress and more stress often means more health problems.

List of Emergencies:

Natural Disasters

• Hurricane
• Tsunami
• Tornado
• Earthquake
• Wildfire
• Flood
• Winter Storm
• Polar Vortex
• Volcano
• Dust Storm
• Asteroid
• Solar Flare
• Pandemic
• Avalanche
• Drought

Man-Made Disasters

• Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, or Explosive (CBRNE) Attack
• Terrorism
• Riot/Social Unrest
• Active Shooter
• Home Invasion
• House Fire
• Carjacking

Common Emergencies

• Car Accident
• Car Breaks down
• Plumbing or Flood Issues
• Water Contamination or Shortage
• Disease
• Physical Injuries

Cyber Incidents

• Damage Your Identity
• Fraud
• Ransomware
• Fake News
• Ploy Emails
• Access Your Phone/Computer
• Loss of Sensitive Information

Some emergencies occur more often based on where we live.

Second, where we live can affect the likelihood a particular emergency may occur.  For example, if we live in Tornado Alley we are more likely to have tornados (obviously).  If we live near a major city we are more likely to have crime, social unrest, or even terrorism.

Some emergencies occur more often based on our behaviors.

Third, what we do may increase the likelihood an emergency can occur.  For example, the more we drive, the more likely we are to be involved in a driving related emergency (such as a flat tire or serious collision).  Swimming often or owning a pool means we are more likely to see a water-related emergency.

How do we know how likely an emergency is?  A good start point is to look at data from reputable sources.  If we are unsure about some information, we will try to find a second or even third source.  This is good to do, even if we are sure about the information.  With our list of emergencies and our data, we can get a sense of which emergencies to prepare for first.

We should be careful using news as a main or only source of information.  News gains viewers (money) by focusing on what is extreme, what is odd, and by making the least likely events seem possible or inevitable.

While it is helpful to plan for extreme, odd, or least likely events, we should still prepare for the more common emergencies first.  We discuss these extreme, odd, and least likely events more in the next section.

Resources:

• Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) – The National Risk Index
• National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) – Terrorism Related Research
  • START: American Deaths in Terrorism Attacks, 1995-2019
• Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) – Crime Data Explorer
  • FBI: Active Shooter Incidents, 2000-2018
• Gavin de Becker and Associates (GDBA): Then and Now: Comparing FBI Active Shooter Stats
• Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS),
  • IIHS: Fatality Facts Sate by State, 2019
• Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – Leading Causes of Death
• Healthline – Leading Causes of Death

PREP STRATEGY STEP #2: DEVASTATING, BUT LESS LIKELY EVENTS

Back to 2020 and 2021.  Two years and several less likely events.  A global pandemic, large scale social unrest, and a tense political climate.  As we all know, less likely does not mean never.

Yes, we want to prepare for the most likely emergencies first.  However, it is also important for us to plan for what is referred to as “low probability, high-impact” (or as I call them “devastating, but less likely”) events.  Because devastating events do occur from time-to-time, the problems they can cause do merit some focus in our prep strategy.

For example, a solar flare.  A solar flare is a burst of energy from the sun.  If it hits Earth, it can cause world-wide issues (such as with satellites, power grids, electronics, etc.).  I’m not saying this because we should be scared or worried about solar flares.  I just use this to highlight a devastating, but less likely event for which many of us have not prepared.

Again, we do not want to prepare for a nuclear attack (or solar flare) before we prepare for a car breakdown or a house fire.

Examples of Devastating, But Less Likely Events:

• Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, or Explosive (CBRNE) attack
• Global pandemic
• Terrorism
• Solar Flare
• Asteroid

PREP STRATEGY STEP #3: PUTTING YOUR PLAN INTO ACTION

We prioritized emergencies, now what? Next, our prep strategy will focus on how to respond to those emergencies.

Here are four responses that cover the bulk, if not all, emergency situations.

1. Day-to-Day Incidents
2. Cyber Incidents
3. Shelter-in-Place
4. Evacuation

Using these four responses, we can prepare for several emergencies at once.  This will help save us time and money.

What do each of the following events have in common: a minor hurricane, severe winter weather, a tornado, a pandemic, social unrest, a home invasion, or even an active shooter?  All of these emergencies may need us to Shelter-in-Place (SIP).  By preparing for SIP generally, we are then preparing for all of these events.

Step 1 is for us to get general supplies for a type of emergency response.  Step 2 is for us to get supplies for specific emergencies, starting with those emergencies most likely to occur.

Here is a simplified look at preparing for a SIP.  First, we need to decide what is the best room for us to shelter in.  Next, we will make sure there is a phone, food, water, etc. in that room.  Last, we will buy items like a generator (for a hurricane or severe winter weather) or a self-defense firearm (for a home invasion or active shooter).

In upcoming blog posts we will look at each of the four responses below in much more depth.  Stay tuned!

DAY-TO-DAY PREPAREDNESS  

A huge part of emergency prep, but often ignored.

This means preparing ourselves and our family for common (or everyday) problems.  For example, car accidents or breakdowns, medical or health problems, financial issues, utility (plumbing, heating, electrical, etc.) outages, house fixes, etc.

While it is less glamorous to prepare for everyday problems, doing so will have the most noticeable impact because of how often these problems come up.

Consider:

• Tool Set
• Rainy day fund
• Moderate weekly exercise
• Healthy eating and in moderation
• Good short-term food & water supply
• Fire extinguisher

Posts:

• #1: The Venues (the house and car)
• #2: The Personages (the body, ours, and family)

CYBER PREPAREDENESS

This means protecting our, and our family’s, personal and sensitive information as well as having trust in what others say or do online.

• Protecting Our Information: credit card, identity, personal schedule, data from websites you visit, personal preferences, health information, etc.
• Trust in Information (necessary when you give money, make a purchase, vote, etc.): fake news, fake people, scams, ransoms, etc.

Consider:

• Regularly update and restart your computer or phone
• Use anti-virus software
• Use strong passwords
• Be cautious of links in emails
• Verify information in emails or on the internet
• Limit what information you share

SHELTER-IN-PLACE (SIP)

This is when we have to stay at home or in a specific room for a period of time to improve our safety during an emergency.

Consider:

• Phones, Radios
• Strength of room (against vibration or winds)
• Block door to safe room
• Fire extinguisher
• Food, water, and power
• First aid kit

EVACUATION

This is when we have to leave our home or another site (hopefully only briefly), to improve us and our family’s safety during an emergency.

Consider:

• Family members that need help
• Pets
• Portability of supplies
• Ladders (if not on first floor)
• Fire extinguisher